Assessing the medical resources in COVID-19 based on evolutionary game.

COVID-19 has brought a great challenge to the medical system. A key scientific question is how to make a balance between home quarantine and staying in the hospital. To this end, we propose a game-based susceptible-exposed-asymptomatic -symptomatic- hospitalized-recovery-dead model to reveal such a situation. In this new framework, time-varying cure rate and mortality are employed and a parameter m is introduced to regulate the probability that individuals are willing to go to the hospital. Through extensive simulations, we find that (1) for low transmission rates (ß < 0.2), the high value of m (the willingness to stay in the hospital) indicates the full use of medical resources, and thus the pandemic can be easily contained; (2) for high transmission rates (ß > 0.2), large values of m lead to breakdown of the healthcare system, which will further increase the cumulative number of confirmed cases and death cases. Finally, we conduct the empirical analysis using the data from Japan and other typical countries to illustrate the proposed model and to test how our model explains reality.

Effect of vaccine efficacy on disease transmission with age-structured.

Recent outbreaks of novel infectious diseases (e.g., COVID-19, H2N3) have highlighted the threat of pathogen transmission, and vaccination offers a necessary tool to relieve illness. However, vaccine efficacy is one of the barriers to eradicating the epidemic. Intuitively, vaccine efficacy is closely related to age structures, and the distribution of vaccine efficacy usually obeys a Gaussian distribution, such as with H3N2 and influenza A and B. Based on this fact, in this paper, we study the effect of vaccine efficacy on disease spread by considering different age structures and extending the traditional susceptible-infected-recovery/vaccinator(SIR/V) model with two stages to three stages, which includes the decision-making stage, epidemic stage, and birth-death stage. Extensive numerical simulations show that our model generates a higher vaccination level compared with the case of complete vaccine efficacy because the vaccinated individuals in our model can form small and numerous clusters slower than that of complete vaccine efficacy. In addition, priority vaccination for the elderly is conducive to halting the epidemic when facing population ageing. Our work is expected to provide valuable information for decision-making and the design of more effective disease control strategies.

A three-arm, multicenter, open-label randomized controlled trial of hydroxychloroquine and low-dose prednisone to treat recurrent pregnancy loss in women with undifferentiated connective tissue diseases: protocol for the Immunosuppressant regimens for LIving FEtuses (ILIFE) trial.

BACKGROUND: Undifferentiated connective tissue disease (UCTD) is known to induce adverse pregnancy outcomes and even recurrent spontaneous abortion (RSA) by placental vascular damage and inflammation activation. Anticoagulation can prevent pregnancy morbidities. However, it is unknown whether the addition of immune suppressants to anticoagulation can prevent spontaneous pregnancy loss in UCTD patients. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and low-dose prednisone on recurrent pregnancy loss for women with UCTD. METHODS: The Immunosuppressant for Living Fetuses (ILIFE) Trial is a three-arm, multicenter, open-label randomized controlled trial with the primary objective of comparing hydroxychloroquine combined with low-dose prednisone and anticoagulation with anticoagulation alone in treating UCTD women with recurrent spontaneous abortion. The third arm of using hydroxychloroquine combined with anticoagulant for secondary comparison. A total of 426 eligible patients will be randomly assigned to each of the three arms with a 1:1:1 allocation ratio. The primary outcome is the rate of live births. Secondary outcomes include adverse pregnancy outcomes and progression of UCTD. DISCUSSION: This is the first multi-center, open-label, randomized controlled trial which evaluates the efficacy of immunosuppressant regimens on pregnancy outcomes and UCTD progression. It will provide evidence on whether the immunosuppressant ameliorates the pregnancy prognosis in UCTD patients with RSA and the progression into defined connective tissue disease. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03671174 . Registered on 14 September 2018.